Introduction
The U.S. presidential election system involves both the popular vote and the Electoral College. While the popular vote reflects the total number of votes cast by citizens, the Electoral College ultimately determines the winner. This analysis aims to explore the dynamics between these two voting systems over nearly two centuries.
Data Overview
The dataset includes the following columns:
- President: Name of the winning candidate.
- Election Year: The year the election took place.
- Popular Vote (%): Percentage of the popular vote received.
- Popular Vote Margin (%): Margin by which the candidate won or lost the popular vote.
- Electoral Vote (%): Percentage of the Electoral College votes received.
- Electoral Vote Margin (%): Margin by which the candidate won the Electoral College vote.
- Electoral Vote - Popular Vote (%): Difference between the Electoral College percentage and the popular vote percentage.
Note: The 1824 election data for John Quincy Adams lacks popular vote information due to incomplete historical records.
Popular Vote Analysis
Average Popular Vote Percentage
Excluding the 1824 election, the average popular vote percentage received by winning candidates is approximately 51.9%.
Highest and Lowest Popular Vote Percentages
- Highest: Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964 with 61.1%.
- Lowest: Abraham Lincoln in 1860 with 39.9%.
Notable Observations
- Plurality Wins: Several candidates won with less than 50% of the popular vote due to multiple strong candidates or third-party influences (e.g., Woodrow Wilson in 1912, Bill Clinton in 1992).
- Landslide Victories: Elections with over 60% popular vote are rare and indicate a significant mandate from the electorate.
Electoral Vote Analysis
Average Electoral Vote Percentage
The average Electoral College percentage for winning candidates is approximately 70.7%.
Highest and Lowest Electoral Vote Percentages
- Highest: Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936 with 98.5%.
- Lowest: Rutherford B. Hayes in 1876 with 50.1%.
Amplification Effect
The Electoral College often amplifies the margin of victory reflected in the popular vote, leading to larger electoral margins even when the popular vote is close.
Popular Vote vs. Electoral Vote
Scatter Plot Description
A scatter plot of popular vote percentages (x-axis) versus Electoral College percentages (y-axis) would generally show an upward trend, indicating a positive correlation. However, many points lie above the diagonal line y = x, highlighting the Electoral College's tendency to amplify popular vote margins.
Correlation Coefficient
The correlation coefficient between popular vote percentages and Electoral College percentages is approximately 0.85, indicating a strong positive relationship.
Elections with Popular Vote and Electoral College Mismatch
Four elections resulted in the winning candidate losing the popular vote but winning the Electoral College:
- 1876: Rutherford B. Hayes
- Popular Vote Margin: -3.0%
- Electoral Vote Margin: 0.2%
- 1888: Benjamin Harrison
- Popular Vote Margin: -0.8%
- Electoral Vote Margin: 16.2%
- 2000: George W. Bush
- Popular Vote Margin: -0.5%
- Electoral Vote Margin: 1.0%
- 2016: Donald J. Trump
- Popular Vote Margin: -2.0%
- Electoral Vote Margin: 14.3%
Analysis of Mismatched Elections
- Close Electoral Margins: Except for Benjamin Harrison in 1888 and Donald J. Trump in 2016, the electoral margins were relatively small.
- Third-Party Influence: In some cases, third-party candidates affected the distribution of the popular vote.
Trends Over Time
Popular Vote Margins
- 19th Century: Popular vote margins were often larger due to less population density and regional voting patterns.
- 20th Century: Saw both extreme landslides (e.g., FDR in 1936) and very close elections (e.g., Kennedy in 1960).
- 21st Century: Elections have been relatively close, reflecting a more polarized electorate.
Electoral Vote Margins
- The Electoral College has consistently shown a tendency to magnify the winner's margin.
- Exception: In extremely close elections, the amplification is less pronounced (e.g., 2000 election).
Correlation Analysis
Popular Vote Margin vs. Electoral Vote Margin
- Correlation Coefficient: Approximately 0.88, indicating a strong positive correlation.
- Interpretation: As the popular vote margin increases, the electoral vote margin tends to increase as well.
Electoral Vote - Popular Vote Difference
- The average difference between the Electoral College percentage and the popular vote percentage is 18.8%, showing that the Electoral College often exaggerates the winning candidate's mandate.
Key Observations
- Electoral Amplification: The Electoral College system tends to amplify the popular vote margin in favor of the winning candidate.
- Close Elections: In closely contested elections, small shifts in voter distribution can lead to significant differences in electoral outcomes.
- Popular Vote Losers as Winners: Four presidents won the presidency without securing the popular vote, highlighting the potential discrepancies in the system.
- Third-Party Candidates: The presence of strong third-party candidates can significantly affect both the popular and electoral vote distributions.
Conclusion
The analysis reveals that while the popular vote is a critical measure of a candidate's support, the Electoral College often magnifies or, in rare cases, contradicts the popular mandate. Understanding this dynamic is essential for comprehending past election outcomes and the potential implications for future elections.